"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." Communist Tyrant Josef Stalin
New York Times: Polls Unreliable
February 5, 2000 NA (Network America) e-wire
New York Times: Polls Unreliable
I'm working on an e-wire regarding one or two strategies the Ruling Elite may be about to embark on to "Stop Buchanan" and all other third party candidates. Hopefully that one tomorrow.
Today's Network America e-wire concerns an article which appeared in the New York Times on February 3rd, 2000 about how the polls were off in New Hampshire, with brief commentary afterwards. Here's the article:
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February 3, 2000
Poll Results Show Vulnerability in Calling Primaries Accurately
New York Times
By MICHAEL R. KAGAY
Feb. 3, 2000
Polls of New Hampshire voters taken before Tuesday's primary election mostly got each party's winner right but were often not so accurate in measuring the size of each victory.
Many of the pre-primary polls tended to underestimate the size of John McCain's victory and to overestimate the size of Al Gore's.
On the Republican side, virtually all of the polls showed Mr. McCain leading George W. Bush, but by only a margin in single digits or low double digits.
Mr. McCain won by 18 percentage points.
By contrast, on the Democratic side, most pre-primary polls correctly showed Mr. Gore leading Bill Bradley but in several cases by double-digit margins.
Mr. Gore won by just four percentage points.
An example is the Gallup/CNN/ USA Today poll, which conducted daily tracking surveys leading up to the primary. In their final interviewing on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday they showed Mr. McCain with 44 percent and Mr. Bush with 32 percent, correctly indicating the victor but slightly underestimating the size of the McCain victory.
On the Democratic side, the Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll found Mr. Gore with 54 percent and Mr. Bradley with 42 percent, again indicating the correct winner but somewhat overestimating the margin.
The CBS News tracking poll in its final interviewing on Friday, Saturday and Sunday found Mr. McCain with only a 4-point lead in the Republican contest, and Mr. Gore with a 16-point lead in the Democratic race.
Kathleen Frankovic, director of surveys at CBS News, said: "Polls fundamentally got the right share of the vote for the national front-runners.
But the polls were too low on the two challengers because of late-deciding voters and the influence of independents."
Polling experts over the years have emphasized the volatility and lower reliability of polls in primaries, as opposed to those in general elections.
End of article ******************************
Comments:
1. In computerized states, the Big TV Networks have been virtually infallible in calling races that were decided by only one or two points. In a handcounted state like New Hampshire (70% handcounted anyway, we see they just can't achieve that type of accuracy.
2. Notice that the pollsters claim that polls are not as reliable in primaries as they are in general elections. Why? Independents vote and change their mind at the last minute in general elections too.
3. This article is actually a sly defense of the propaganda polls to which the New York Times is a guilty party. While the writer is probably totally sincere, the New York Times is saying: "The pollsters may have been pretty far off this time, but there are reasons. All in all, you can still trust the polls - and everything else about Big Media Election coverage." The truth is that polls can be accurate, and they can be way off. There is no way that asking 600 or 1200 Americans their opinion on this and that issue can accurately reflect America opinion day after day on every issue under the sun. In other words, take away computerized elections and the glaringly inaccurate poll predictions that will result will cause the public to stop taking polls that seriously. Nothing could be worse for the Ruling Elite. Remember how during the Clinton impeachment the only argument left to the Democrats and the Newsmedia was that "70% of the American people don't want Clinton impeached" ???? More on this in a coming e-wire.
4. The bottom line is this: restore properly handcounted elections done by the neighborhood citizens - and all these voodoo priests of polling will be TOTALLY discredited. That's why the TV networks fight so hard against covering anything about the riggability of computerized elections.
The man who sent that news clipping to Network America is Michael Hoffman II, who runs the Campaign for Radical Truth in History website and the Hoffman wire. Hoffman has stated (paraphrase): "I don't believe in the polling priest class, and I don't believe in plus or minus 3%." This article, among many other items, prove Hoffman correct when polls are measured against VERIFIABLE elections.
Jim Condit Jr.
Director, Citizens for a Fair Vote Count
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